VACCP risk score ranking

VACCP risk score by commodity — worked HACCP risk calculator examples

Every commodity below is scored with the same method as our free HACCP risk calculator and VACCP Lab: 43 vulnerability and impact factors rated 1–5, then a VACCP risk score (RPN) of likelihood × consequence on a 1–25 scale. Each row lists documented fraud cases behind the score, so you can sanity-check the number before putting it in an audit pack. Open any commodity in the calculator to adjust factors for your own supply chain.

Scores are starting baselines built from publicly documented incidents (EU RASFF, Europol Opson, FDA import alerts, national authority reports). They are not a substitute for your own supplier evidence, and GFSI-benchmarked schemes expect a site-specific assessment.

Commodities ranked by VACCP risk score (RPN 1–25)

#	Commodity	Likelihood	Consequence	VACCP risk score	Tier	Documented cases
1	Milk	3.48	4.06	14.1	Medium	20
2	Olive Oil	3.76	3.50	13.2	Medium	15
3	Spices	3.68	3.44	12.7	Medium	20
4	Honey	3.72	3.33	12.4	Medium	18
5	Meat	3.48	3.50	12.2	Medium	31
6	Fish	3.40	3.56	12.1	Medium	17
7	Wine	3.32	3.44	11.4	Medium	5
8	Cocoa	3.52	3.11	11.0	Medium	2
9	Coffee	3.48	3.11	10.8	Medium	4

Milk — VACCP risk score 14.1/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.48 × consequence 4.06 · 20 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2022 · NigeriaNAFDAC seized counterfeit infant formula with substandard nutritional content.Source: NAFDAC Nigeria
2021 · GhanaShea butter exports adulterated with palm oil and paraffin wax for cosmetic and food markets.Source: Ghana Standards Authority
2020 · NetherlandsGouda cheese origin fraud: non-Dutch cheese sold with Dutch quality marks for premium pricing.Source: NVWA Netherlands

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Olive Oil — VACCP risk score 13.2/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.76 × consequence 3.50 · 15 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2025 · ItalyEuropol Opson XIII operation: coordinated seizure of counterfeit olive oil across 7 countries.Source: Europol
2024 · EuropeRecord olive oil prices (drought/climate) triggered surge in adulteration alerts across EU RASFF.Source: EU RASFF 2024
2023 · AustraliaAustralian olive oil producers found blending imported oils while claiming 100% Australian origin.Source: AOCS / Australian Competition & Consumer Commission

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Spices — VACCP risk score 12.7/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.68 × consequence 3.44 · 20 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2024 · GlobalEthylene oxide contamination of sesame and spice imports to EU triggered hundreds of border rejections.Source: EU RASFF
2023 · United StatesFDA recall of cinnamon applesauce pouches contaminated with extreme levels of lead (chromated cinnamon).Source: FDA
2023 · EthiopiaEthiopian spice exports (cardamom, ginger) found adulterated with fillers reducing quality.Source: Ethiopian Spice Sector Strategy

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Honey — VACCP risk score 12.4/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.72 × consequence 3.33 · 18 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2024 · EuropeContinued EU enforcement actions: new C4 sugar syrup adulteration methods detected bypassing traditional tests.Source: EU JRC
2023 · New ZealandGlobal sales of 'Manuka honey' estimated at 3–4x actual NZ production, indicating widespread fraud.Source: NZ Ministry for Primary Industries
2022 · EuropeEU coordinated action 'From the Hives': 46% of imported honey samples suspected adulterated.Source: European Commission

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Meat — VACCP risk score 12.2/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.48 × consequence 3.50 · 31 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2023 · ArgentinaPremium Argentine beef origin fraud: lower-grade cattle sold with falsified traceability documents.Source: SENASA Argentina
2023 · United Arab EmiratesESMA investigation revealed non-halal meat entering supply chain with falsified halal slaughter certificates.Source: ESMA UAE
2022 · United KingdomLondon kosher butcher caught selling non-shechita meat as properly slaughtered kosher meat.Source: London Beth Din / UK Trading Standards

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Fish — VACCP risk score 12.1/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.40 × consequence 3.56 · 17 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2025 · Global2025 Global Food Fraud Report highlights seafood as most-reported fraud category globally.Source: Food Authenticity Network
2023 · PeruPeruvian seafood exports with falsified catch documentation and species mislabeling.Source: SANIPES Peru
2022 · JapanJapanese DNA testing revealed widespread species substitution in sushi restaurants (20-25% mislabeled).Source: National Consumer Affairs Center Japan

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Wine — VACCP risk score 11.4/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.32 × consequence 3.44 · 5 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2022 · South AfricaSouth African wine export fraud: cheaper cultivars blended and labeled as premium Stellenbosch wines.Source: SAWIS
2018 · FranceFrench winemakers convicted of relabeling cheaper Languedoc wine as premium Côtes du Rhône.Source: French DGCCRF
2016 · IsraelNon-kosher wine repackaged with counterfeit kosher certification labels sold during Passover.Source: Israel Chief Rabbinate

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Cocoa — VACCP risk score 11.0/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.52 × consequence 3.11 · 2 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2024 · GhanaRecord cocoa prices led to adulteration with cheaper substitutes and weight fraud in bean trading.Source: COCOBOD Ghana / Reuters
2019 · Côte d'IvoireCocoa bean origin fraud: non-certified beans mixed with Rainforest Alliance certified beans.Source: Mighty Earth

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Coffee — VACCP risk score 10.8/25

Medium

Likelihood 3.48 × consequence 3.11 · 4 documented cases in the FoodReport archive

2024 · GlobalGrowing reports of specialty single-origin coffee blended with cheaper robusta beans.Source: ICO / Industry Reports
2022 · EthiopiaEthiopian specialty coffee origin fraud: non-Yirgacheffe beans marketed as premium single-origin.Source: Ethiopian Coffee & Tea Authority
2017 · ColombiaNon-Colombian origin coffee sold with Juan Valdez and Colombian origin certification fraud.Source: FNC Colombia

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How the VACCP risk score is calculated

Likelihood averages 25 vulnerability factors: historic incidents, emerging alerts, market size and price volatility, supply chain length and access points, adulterant availability, material form, specification and audit controls, authenticity testing, and theft or counterfeiting exposure.

Consequence averages 18 impact factors: characterising ingredient status, compositional standards, origin and provenance claims, allergen and vulnerable-population exposure, toxicological and microbiological hazards, and brand or regulatory cost.

VACCP risk score (RPN) = likelihood × consequence, on a 1–25 scale. Below 8 is low, 8–14.9 medium, 15 and above high. A HACCP risk calculator scores accidental hazards; this scores intentional, economically motivated adulteration, and the two sit side by side in a food safety plan.

Open the free VACCP risk calculator